Will El Niño 2026 cause extreme weather worldwide?

As of mid-2025, forecasters have not yet confirmed whether a significant El Niño event will develop in 2026. Current ENSO forecasts typically only extend reliably about 9 to 12 months ahead, so predictions for 2026 carry substantial uncertainty. What we do know is that when strong El Niño events occur, they historically drive predictable regional impacts: drought in Australia and Southeast Asia, heavier rainfall in parts of South America and the southern United States, and altered hurricane patterns. However, the intensity of any future El Niño will determine how severe those effects are. Monitoring agencies like NOAA and the WMO will provide clearer outlooks as 2026 approaches, so checking their updates closer to that period will give you the most reliable information.