Will Iran war trigger a global conflict?

Iran conflict carries real escalation risks but a true global conflict remains unlikely. The main danger is regional spillover involving Israel, Hezbollah, Houthi forces, and Iranian proxies across Iraq and Syria, potentially drawing in the US militarily. Russia and China have interests in Iran but neither wants direct war with the West over it. China depends on Gulf oil and would likely pressure restraint rather than join a fight. Russia is already stretched in Ukraine. The more realistic scenario is a contained but destructive regional war with economic shockwaves, particularly oil price spikes affecting global markets. History shows Middle East conflicts, even severe ones like the Iran-Iraq war, tend to stay regional. Escalation to a genuine world war would require catastrophic miscalculation by multiple nuclear powers simultaneously.